Top 5 Title Contenders

Alright so as were just a few days from the All-Star break, it is naturally time to take a look at the five teams I think have a real shot at winning a title. Also, with the trade deadline bearing down, I’ll play GM and make the moves the teams need to stay on or move up the short championship contender list.

5. Orlando Magic

- 35-17
- 2nd in Eastern Conference ( 6.5 games back)
- 1st in Southeast Division (1 game lead)

Last year’s Eastern Conference Champs have had a bit of an up and down season. There have been admitted issues with the replacement of Hedo Turkgolu with Vince Carter (just ask Rashard Lewis) and more disagreements between Stan Van Gundy and Dwight Howard, but lately they seem to be figuring it out. Though the NBA season is 82 games long, and it is never too smart to place too much emphasis on one game, I do have to put a lot of stock in the Magic’s comeback win against the Celtics two weeks ago. Down 16 points at home in the third quarter, the Magic battled all the way back and stole a win from Celts. That game was not only important for a gaining an edge in a possible tie breaker situation, but more than that, I think it was the first major win that this group of players have had together. Since this win, they have won 6 of 7 (with their lone loss being an inexcusable home defeat to the Wizards), with key wins over Boston twice and beating Atlanta handily for the third time this year. They carry this momentum into another big game in Cleveland tomorrow, and I think it will be a good measuring stick for this team against one of the league’s best.

Despite their recent success though, I have to rank them at five because I just don’t think that they are as good as they were last year. Too often they look flat and disinterested on both ends of the floor. Their ability to shoot the three pointer is a double edged sword because while they are never out of a game, they fall into a dangerous habit of relying on their ability to string together big runs, and that is a well that might have a tendency to go dry come playoff time. Also one of their strengths last year was the 3-5 pick and roll with Turkgolu and Howard in late game situations, but this year the distributing duties that Hedo did so well now fall to the always shot happy Vince Carter. They have one of the most talented teams on paper, but I don’t think this team meshes well enough to get back to the finals, and couldn’t beat either Boston or Cleveland in a 7 game series.

GM- I don’t think that the Magic are going to make any major splashes in the trade market, as their team is pretty solid and talented. But if one of the other Eastern contenders pulls the trigger, Otis Smith might play follow the leader and change his mind.

4. Boston Celtics

- 32-17
- 4th in the East (8 games back, 1.5 of second place)
- 1st in the Atlantic (5 game lead)

Due to my location and weird inclination to listen to Tommy Heinson “objectively” call Celtics games, I have watched this team more than any other besides the Cavs, but yet I can’t make up my mind on the ceiling of this team. A big part of me wants to believe that they are too old and too injured to seriously contend, but yet I see glimpses of the old champions from time to time.

There is no denying that “The Big Three” are getting up there in age, and the injury plague has hit this team harder than any team outside of Portland, but yet here they are on the list. But beyond the injuries, the biggest concern with this team has to be the more frequent breakdowns on defense. As the calling card for this team for the last three years, the defensive effectiveness has noticeably declined for major stretches this year. This along with the fact that they are often struggling to score over 100 points these days, have contributed to another worrisome fact, that they have lost now 9 games in which they led by 10 or more points (including both recent Orlando games). A frustrating trend that might be one of the reasons for the supposed locker room chemistry issues Rondo mentioned last week. They also already have 9 home losses this season, as compared to only 8 let downs on the road. The good part about this though is that if the playoffs started today, they would start their second round series on the road, and frankly I don’t think that bothers this group all that much. Because while injuries do come with age, so does experience, and this is a very veteran group who I feel will have no problems going on the road and winning a game or two against Atlanta or Orlando in the Eastern semifinals.

Now of course at fifteen games over five hundred it hasn’t been all bad for the Celtics, and I do think that it will steadily improve for them that they end up with the second or third seed (unless they begin to rest their key players for health reasons down the stretch). One big change will be the recovery of Marquis Daniels, who helps solidify what has been a shaky bench, and provides a solid defender and playmaker with the second unit. Another major bright spot has been the development of Rajon Rondo, who has quietly developed into the best point guard in the East without a consistent outside jumper. He is a terrific finisher, hence why he is leading all guards in field goal percentage, and his court vision, especially in transition, is among the best in the league. He has a knack for the ball, and often due to incredible quickness and natural intuition, finds himself in the right spot at the right time. It is quickly becoming his team, and while he might not get the public credit of some of his more experienced teammates, they all know that they will not reach their championship goals without him playing top level basketball.

Though their record doesn’t show it currently, I do believe that the Celtics are the second best “team” in the East, and they will beat whoever they meet in the second round. Ultimately though, I don’t think they can beat Cleveland this year without the dominant half court defense they’ve had in the past. That being said though, you can never count out a champion, and even though I have tried to black out that few weeks in June 2008, they must always be accounted for.

GM- There have been a lot of rumors circulating about the Celtics trading Ray Allen, for say Kevin Martin or someone on the Bulls, but ultimately I don’t think this trade is going to happen. The more realistic trade, and more valuable trade for the Celtics is to attain a backup point guard. Because as good as Rondo has been this year, those playing for him when he sits have been just as bad. Eddie House is not and will never be an NBA point guard capable of running a team, so just about anyone would be an upgrade, especially if they could swing a good young player like D.J. Augustine.

3. Denver Nuggets

- 35-17
- 2nd in West (4.5 games back)
- 1st in Northwest Division (2 game lead)

Denver has always been one of the most exciting teams to watch, but this year they are adding some serious substance to their style (aka they are playing some defense). Marc Stein pointed out that with no matter who is in the lineup, the Nuggets are 15-0 when giving up less than 95 points this season. If that trend continues, then they will be a tough team to beat come playoff time.

Before his injury, Carmelo Anthony was having the best season of his career, but even in his absence the Nuggets didn’t really miss a beat. That can be due in large part to the stellar play of Chauncey Billups, including a career high 39 points in a monster win in L.A. against the Lakers last week. Now I don’t think that Billups can continue that scoring binge when Melo returns, but heading down the stetch, they are one of only a few teams that have two legitimate scoring options that can take over a game. And that’s not even including the NBA’s biggest microwave, J.R. Smith, who can fill it up for 40 on any given night.

The one major concern I have about the Nuggets is their lack of front court help and size. Especially against the Lakers who are so big and deep, it will be tough for the Nuggets to win relying on Nene, K-Mart, and the Birdman, especially now that Jeff Foster is out for the year. They are able to excel by getting out and running during the regular season, but when it comes playoff time and the pace slows down, I think the Lakers have a marked edge inside on both ends of the floor.

GM- As I just addressed, the Nuggets need an extra big man. I think that one of the interesting options would be looking into acquiring Marcus Camby, which would provide solid rebounding and defense on the interior. But again I think they most likely will not make a move, and will be wishing they have come June.

2. Los Angeles Lakers

- 40-13
- 1st in West (4.5 game lead)
- 1st in Pacific Division (8.5 game lead)

Last year’s champions were almost the unanimous choice to repeat in the preseason, and while they haven’t been as dominant as expected, they are still the class of the West. Though some other teams have closed the gap lately (the Nuggets and Jazz), the Lakers still hold a commanding lead for the best record in the conference, and all roads to the Finals should go through the Staples Center.

From players 1-6, the Lakers have the unquestioned most talent in the league, but after that, there is such a marked decrease that it has to be mentioned. Lamar Odom is really the only reliable big man on the bench, but of even greater concern is the guard and wing position. Shannon Brown has shown glimpses of being a good player, but he is still too raw and inconsistent. I won’t even justify the shell of a player Sasha Vujacic is now, and I have never been a believer in Jordan Farmer. Still though, their starters are good enough to overcompensate and get them back into the Finals.

An interesting tidbit about the Lakers though, and something that I think will only help them down the road, is how well they have played the last three games without Kobe. With number 24 sitting out for the first time in nearly three years, the Lakers went into Portland and won for the first time in years, an effort they followed up by a win over the Spurs, and a fifteen point lead on the road against the Jazz who have won 9 straight. Besides Bryant, the Lakers have also been without Andrew Bynum for these games, and this has led to reemergence and recognition of just how talented Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom are. Without Bryant, Gasol has become the consistent first option and he has excelled in a role he hasn’t held since his days in Memphis. He is the most skilled big man in the post, and without having to worry about getting Kobe his touches, he has been able to be patient and attack on his terms. With regards to Mr. Khole Kardasian, I have always thought that he was a top 15 talent in the NBA, but never found the right system to exploit his talents. I mean he is a legit 6’10 forward who can handle and shoot like a guard, and would be a perennial All-Star if he was the center of a team and able to play with the ball in his hands more; an opportunity he has gotten in the last few games. Now there is no denying this is Kobe’s team, and when he returns, all will return to order, but I think it is good for Gasol and Odom to remember that they good, very, very good.

GM- I think that this current team is good enough, and more importantly big enough to win the West as they are, so I don’t think they are going to press for a trade. But they wouldn’t mind adding a solid shooter that would work well in the triangle offense, a la Kirk Hinrich.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers

- 42-11 (Best record in NBA by 2 games)
- 1st in East (6 game lead)
- 1st in Central Division (16 game lead)

I don’t want to do it, I really don’t, but I have to… as of the All-Star break, the Cleveland Cavaliers are the favorites to win the NBA title. They have the best record in the league and have won 12 straight despite not having Mo Williams or Delonte West for the majority of them. Somehow LeBron James is eclipsing his MVP season of a year ago, and on a nightly basis he is ending the debate of who is the best player on the planet. He is the most versatile player in the NBA, and to quote Bill Simmons, is now able to just flip a switch between “Magic and Michael mode.” He can score at will when we wants (ask the Knicks), but he has also done an amazing job filling in as the make shift point guard, averaging double digit assists in the last few games. I honestly cannot come up with enough adjectives to describe his play, so I’ll just move on.

I will admit that I wrote a few months ago that the Shaq experiment wasn’t working, but I stand corrected. He has looked a lot fresher lately, and has once again become a scoring option in the post. They run a lot of sets through him, especially early in quarters, which usually ends in Shaq getting a quality shot, kicking it for an open 3, or getting fouled which helps put the opposition in the penalty early on. He also has been a force on defense, and in late game situations, no players are getting easy lay ups, and they are feeling it anytime they come into the lane.

They are back to dominating at home (23-3) and the naysayers are a long way away after a slow start to the season. Yes, I have seen this play before…Just last year, the Cavs coasted through the regular season with the best record, only to have their championship aspirations dashed by the athletic Magic. But there seems to be something different about this team. They are playing with a renewed vigor and are without a doubt the hungriest team in the league right now (possibly playing to keep LeBron in Cleveland….nope I am blocking that thought out). I still don’t know that they match up real well against Rashard Lewis (we’ll see on Thursday), but I think that they are the best team in the East and it will be really difficult for anyone to win in the Q come playoff time. Even if he wins zero titles LeBron will go down as one of the top players in NBA history, but plain and simple, he wants to be considered the best, and he knows that to do that he has to win multiple titles, a fact that he hopes to start this June. (Just fyi, MJ didn’t win his first title until his 7th year in the league, and since LeBron was drafted in 2003, that would make THIS his 7th season….I’m just saying).

GM- One of the hardest working GM’s has to be Danny Ferry. He has the conundrum of both trying to provide talent to win now to impress LeBron, and build young talent to keep LeBron. Last season Rashard Lewis on the perimeter and Dwight Howard in the post exploited the Cavs. Shaq was brought in to handle Superman, but the Cavs still lack that “stretch 4” (there literally has never been a term more associated with a team than that with the Cavs trade possibilities). They are looking at Antwan Jamison and Troy Murphy, both players who fit the bill, but they are hesitant to give up J.J. Hickson, who has played well of late. There have been mixed reports about the Cavs possibly standing pat again this year at the deadline, but after failing to make a move that ending up costing them last summer, I bet Ferry pulls the trigger despite the high asking prices. LeBron has been lobbying hard for Jamison, and he is the player I would most like, but I guess we’ll see in the next few days.