Cavaliers vs. Celtics Recap - 2/25
Stealing a theme from Dicken’s famous novel “A Tale of Two Cities,” the Cavs-Celtics game last night was indeed a tale of two halves. The Celts came out of the gate with a burst, and led by the play of Rajon Rondo, jumped out to a quick double digit lead. The Celtics looked like the superior team on both sides of the ball, getting and capitalizing on easy offensive looks, while smothering the Cavs on the defensive end. But yet despite shooting an otherworldly 70% for the first 15 or so minutes of the game, the Celtics were unable to deliver the knockout punch; and through the play of LeBron James the Cavs were able to hang around and cut the lead to just 8 before the half. And well everyone knows what happened in the second half. The script was flipped, and the Cavs just absolutely dominated, specifically in the fourth quarter, on their way to a decisive 20 point victory. I know it is only February and this game has an asterisk next to it due to Pierce’s absence, but still there were some things that could be ascertained from both team’s performances.
-DEFENSE. One word. Two syllables. Seven letters. And the absolute key to the Cavaliers accomplishing their championship dreams. During the Cavs three game losing streak after the break, they surrendered over 100 plus points to each opponent, and dropped from 1st to 4th in field goal percentage defense. The rotations were slow, the on the ball defense was abysmal, and the closing out on shooters was not nearly sufficient. The players in the NBA are so talented offensively, that they are going to get their points, but to be a good defensive team, one must make it so those attempts are challenged and difficult. The Cavs were doing neither; players on the Nuggets, Bobcats, and Magic were all able to get very easy shots, and that leads to the increase in opposing field goal percentage. The Cavs were a little better against the Hornets last game, but still got scorched by the rookie guard tandem of Darren Collison and Marcus Thorton. This trend continued in the first quarter against the Celts. Rondo was able to get into the lane and score at will, and this freed up shots for the suddenly red hot Ray Allen. At the 9 minute mark of the 2nd quarter, the Celtics were shooting 73% as a team and held a double digit lead. I will give credit to the Celtics where it’s due, because they were knocking down shots at an incredible rate, but the Cavs were not making it any harder on them. After the break though, the Cavs became the aggressor on defense and wonderfully shut off driving lanes, forcing the Celtics to take a lot of bad, contested jump shots (take a bow Rasheed). They showed they have the ability to really bear down and shut out a team, but too often it is a switch they believe they can just flip on when they need it down the stretch. I know it is unrealistic to expect 48 minutes of perfect defense, both individually and as a team, but in the playoffs there needs to be much more of the showing from the second half than the first.
-Shaq’s Injury- Right in the middle of the Cavaliers first half struggles, it appeared to only get worse when Shaq was forced to leave the game with a “serious” thumb strain. Already without Z, Mike Brown was forced to go super small, and pull JJ Hickson back off the end of the bench. I am one of the biggest JJ supporters there are (Danny Egger will inevitably say he is the biggest). I believe he has a great upside in this league, and was very impressed when Danny Ferry worked to get the Jamison deal done without giving up Hickson. Now this might be a bit of a stretch, but remember just a few years ago when Amare Stoudemire came into the league right out of high school…The 15-18 foot jumper he now makes a living on was non existent, and really all he had was freakish athleticism, and a desire to get better. Not even I will go as far to say that JJ has as much raw talent as Amare, but he does rival his athleticism, as we saw in a full display last night. He is still learning the game, and probably two years away from being considered a serious NBA player, but the easiest thing to teach is how to shoot. And maybe most importantly for Hickson’s confidence, is that LeBron believes in him. In the rare occasions that James was around last summer, he always brought Hickson to work out with him, and I think that that exposure to greatness and work ethic will only continue to inspire him. Ok, after that JJ tanget, back to the point at hand. Following the Jamison trade, I believed the Cavs would struggle for about a month while trying to adjust, and that the biggest problems would fall on the shoulders of Coach Mike Brown. The Cavs now have the most talent on their roster since the LeBron era began, and it is up to Brown to find the best rotations that work. This will involve a lot of tinkering and experimenting, some of which will lead to frustration, but I think last night (hopefully) taught Brown a lesson. And that is that you can’t have a set rotation in the playoffs, because it really ALL does rely on the matchups. Yes, the Cavaliers brought in Shaq and will need him to win series against the Magic or the Lakers. The same can be said for Jamison. But as last night showed, it can be very beneficial for the Cavs to go young and small against the Celtics. There is no denying that the Celtics front line is older and more laboring than the Cavs, and last night showed a marked advantage for the wine and gold when Hickson and Varejao were in there. JJ particularly was fantastic last night, beating the older Celtics up and down the floor, collecting loose balls, steals and a couple highlight reel alley-oops (The Cavs were also +27 when he was in there). I know there is a lot of pressure on Coach Brown to succeed, and that he might be hesitant to shy away from the usual set playoff rotation, but the NBA today is a very dynamic game, and it is always the team that utilizes their match up problems that comes out on top. So while his impact would be negligible against other elite teams, JJ Hickson is a valuable asset against the Celtics and should be used accordingly.
-Rondo- There honestly can’t really be a debate about this anymore; Rajon Rondo is the best point guard (talent wise) in the East. He showcased his whole arsenal in the first quarter last night, blowing by Mo Williams with ease and either finishing with a nice variety of floaters or creative lay ups or finding open teammates (he had 5 assists in the quarter as well). He was pushing the tempo and the Celtics were getting one easy basket after another. It is this Celtics team that should scare people, because they not only lock up in the half court on the defensive end, but then Rondo is able to use his explosion to get up the floor in a hurry and create mismatched advantages. The only problem is, and I have said this about Rondo before, he only seems to play this way for a maximum of a little over 2 quarters, and not even that much last night. Part of it could be that his older teammates can’t keep up throughout the entire game, but whatever the reason, like so many other games, Rondo disappeared in the second half last night. I will give credit to Mike Brown for switching the bigger and more physical Delonte West onto Rondo (I mean I wouldn’t want to embarrass Delonte on national TV by blowing by him…would you?) Still though, I have no doubts that Rondo could play at a high level against West, and yet he doesn’t. It’s as if the exuding confidence in his own ability during the first half has only a 24 minute shelf life, because he was not even close to the same player in the second. I still think he is afraid to take that big shot in the 4th, and when it comes to crunch time and the consequences of mistakes are magnified, that he still is going to defer to his other teammates. There is no doubt that he has made enormous progress in the last two years, but now his mental game needs to catch up to his blossoming physical game. Without Rondo playing consistently at a high level, you can kiss any serious playoff success for the Celtics good bye. At some point Rondo will make the leap and understand that this is his team to run, not just for 2 quarters, but for the entirety. This realization along with the continued improvement of his jump shot will make him truly one of the top tier players in this league…I’m just hoping it doesn’t happen until after June.
-Bay Village Represented Last Night- Maybe I am a bit biased, but I honestly believe that besides LeBron, Mo Williams might be the most important piece to the Cavs success. When he is playing well and knocking down shots, this team is near impossible to beat. There are simply too many options on offense and opposing teams that are scheming to not let LeBron beat them are often subjected to a barrage of Williams’ three pointers like the Celtics were in the fourth quarter last night. Coming back a week or two earlier than expected from his shoulder injury, Mo hadn’t really looked right since the break. His shot was off, and as a shooter, when the ball isn’t going down it can really adversely affect all the other areas of your game. Shooting the ball after a shoulder injury, one would think that you would really try and focus on using your legs to help your shot, but paradoxically the opposite seemed to happen to Williams. He was concerned with proving that the shoulder was healthy that he was using almost exclusively arms on his shot, and the majority of his shots were pushed and fell short of their target. In his first starts back, he was only 2-17 (1-9 from 3), and the beginning of this game didn’t start much better. He was getting beaten so badly by Rondo that he had to get pulled in favor of West, and only attempted 3 shots in the first. But the funny thing about a shooter in a slump is that you got to keep shooting, and often times it can only take one shot to change everything. For Williams, that shot came in the second half when he pulled the trigger on an 18 footer and hit the rim about four or five times before falling through. Watching live, it was the type of shot that isn’t supposed to go in, but as a shooter who has been there, it’s the one that helps you believe the others one will start to fall as well. After the rattler went down, I began to notice a slight difference in William’s demeanor, and I wasn’t the only one. In just another example of his greatness, I think LeBron saw this change as well, because throughout the fourth he had the confidence to find Mo, and he delivered in a big way, hitting four 3s in the quarter. It may be difficult for people who aren’t shooters to understand what I just described, but as Mo said after, “the game (and especially shooting is about 90% mental.” Yes talent of course plays a huge role, but even the greatest of shooters can go through lulls. The art of shooting is one of definitive ebbs and flows, and while he had been struggling mightily, it doesn’t take much for a great shooter like Mo to get going again. So while when Boston wins a championship, they say “cue the duckboats,” I’m going to paraphrase and say for Cleveland to win one, Mo Williams has to keep “cueing the goosenecks.” Just out of neighborly courtesy, I have to quickly talk about Andy as well. I know I have written this before, but his improvement on the offensive end this season is astounding. Even as of last year, he was an offensive liability, but now is someone who has to be accounted for at all times. Yet, in the many instances when his man wanders or cheats to help on LeBron or Shaq, Andy makes the perfect cut and finish, which he did three or four times last night. Depending on how long Shaq is out for, Andy will be thrust in the starting center role, but unlike in years past, I do not feel the team will be any less efficient offensively, and they will actually be better defensively, especially tonight against pick and roll heavy Toronto. Now I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, but I will take myself and my two aforementioned neighbors against any 3 other neighbors in the country…any takers, didn’t think so.”
-Bit of a Mismatch at the 3- As I was told multiple times, LeBron James threw a party at the club Rumor in Boston on Wednesday night, but apparently he was still in the festive mood, because he threw another one in the Garden last night. Now while the rest of teammates didn’t show up until the second half, King James was more than able to hold his own (even despite having to play through the constant “eye effing” he was receiving from Kristin Ryan in her floor seats (her words not mine.)). It is getting to the point that it truly doesn’t matter who tries to guard James, but last night was especially tough for the Celtics. Without Pierce and with Marquis Daniels battling the flu, James was able to do whatever he wanted on the floor. He could blow by Daniels or Tony Allen any time he touched, and I liked that he did just that, instead of settling for fall away jumpers. His aggressiveness was rewarded with double digit free throw attempts in the first half, and open looks for his teammates in the second. He also hit two very big 3s in the first half to cut into the double digit deficit and keep the Cavs close. Speaking of 3s, Marquis Daniels missed two big ones yesterday that I know Celtics fans would have liked the 3-point shootout champion to have taken. Missing those shots prevented leads from going back to 11 and 9 respectively. All in all it was a 12 point swing in the favor of the Cavaliers, yet another luxury of having the best player on the planet (sorry Kobe, it’s not even close anymore). A lot is made about LeBron’s ability to play both like Michael (killer scorer) and Magic (gifted passer) seamlessly. He is so talented that teams must be forced to pick their poison and try and make him do just one of the two. Last night, the Celtics didn’t get that memo as James went for 36 points along with handing out 9 helpers and 7 boards. I know Rivers and the Celtics can live with either the points or the assists, but they simply cannot surrender both. I know that Pierce is a better defender than anyone LeBron saw last night, but it is unreasonable to assume that Pierce can battle to effectively defend James nightly for 7 games and still have enough energy to put up the offensive numbers the Celtics need to win a series.
Overall, I don’t want to make too much of this game because it is still only February and Pierce is the heart and soul of the Celtics, but I do feel much more validated in my preference to playing Boston over Orlando in the playoffs. Don’t get me wrong, the Celtics are still a very good and dangerous team that is capable of making a deep playoff run. But I think there is now a solid formula developed to beating them, and it is one that the rest of the league can thank the Atlanta Hawks for exposing. The Celtics struggles, particularly this season (0-4), against the Hawks are well documented and pretty easily explained. The Celtics struggle with young athletic power forwards (Josh Smith, JJ Hickson) and hot streak shooting point guards (Jamal Crawford, Mo Williams). However there are differences between the Cavaliers and Hawks in that the Cavs are more suited for playoff basketball because they have the pieces to play multiple styles while what you see is what you get in Atlanta. Luckily for the Celtics though, if the records hold up, they would not have to see either of those teams until the Conference Finals, and I personally would favor them in a series against the Magic simply because Orlando doesn’t have the athletic, attacking 4 or game changing point, and Perkins defends Howard as well as anyone in the league. But that is a different discussion for another day. I think this win was a good one for the Cavs because they proved to themselves it is possible to win in Boston (had lost the last 9), and hopefully they can continue to develop the chemistry and cohesiveness that is vital to any championship run.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Top 5 Title Contenders
Alright so as were just a few days from the All-Star break, it is naturally time to take a look at the five teams I think have a real shot at winning a title. Also, with the trade deadline bearing down, I’ll play GM and make the moves the teams need to stay on or move up the short championship contender list.
5. Orlando Magic
- 35-17
- 2nd in Eastern Conference ( 6.5 games back)
- 1st in Southeast Division (1 game lead)
Last year’s Eastern Conference Champs have had a bit of an up and down season. There have been admitted issues with the replacement of Hedo Turkgolu with Vince Carter (just ask Rashard Lewis) and more disagreements between Stan Van Gundy and Dwight Howard, but lately they seem to be figuring it out. Though the NBA season is 82 games long, and it is never too smart to place too much emphasis on one game, I do have to put a lot of stock in the Magic’s comeback win against the Celtics two weeks ago. Down 16 points at home in the third quarter, the Magic battled all the way back and stole a win from Celts. That game was not only important for a gaining an edge in a possible tie breaker situation, but more than that, I think it was the first major win that this group of players have had together. Since this win, they have won 6 of 7 (with their lone loss being an inexcusable home defeat to the Wizards), with key wins over Boston twice and beating Atlanta handily for the third time this year. They carry this momentum into another big game in Cleveland tomorrow, and I think it will be a good measuring stick for this team against one of the league’s best.
Despite their recent success though, I have to rank them at five because I just don’t think that they are as good as they were last year. Too often they look flat and disinterested on both ends of the floor. Their ability to shoot the three pointer is a double edged sword because while they are never out of a game, they fall into a dangerous habit of relying on their ability to string together big runs, and that is a well that might have a tendency to go dry come playoff time. Also one of their strengths last year was the 3-5 pick and roll with Turkgolu and Howard in late game situations, but this year the distributing duties that Hedo did so well now fall to the always shot happy Vince Carter. They have one of the most talented teams on paper, but I don’t think this team meshes well enough to get back to the finals, and couldn’t beat either Boston or Cleveland in a 7 game series.
GM- I don’t think that the Magic are going to make any major splashes in the trade market, as their team is pretty solid and talented. But if one of the other Eastern contenders pulls the trigger, Otis Smith might play follow the leader and change his mind.
4. Boston Celtics
- 32-17
- 4th in the East (8 games back, 1.5 of second place)
- 1st in the Atlantic (5 game lead)
Due to my location and weird inclination to listen to Tommy Heinson “objectively” call Celtics games, I have watched this team more than any other besides the Cavs, but yet I can’t make up my mind on the ceiling of this team. A big part of me wants to believe that they are too old and too injured to seriously contend, but yet I see glimpses of the old champions from time to time.
There is no denying that “The Big Three” are getting up there in age, and the injury plague has hit this team harder than any team outside of Portland, but yet here they are on the list. But beyond the injuries, the biggest concern with this team has to be the more frequent breakdowns on defense. As the calling card for this team for the last three years, the defensive effectiveness has noticeably declined for major stretches this year. This along with the fact that they are often struggling to score over 100 points these days, have contributed to another worrisome fact, that they have lost now 9 games in which they led by 10 or more points (including both recent Orlando games). A frustrating trend that might be one of the reasons for the supposed locker room chemistry issues Rondo mentioned last week. They also already have 9 home losses this season, as compared to only 8 let downs on the road. The good part about this though is that if the playoffs started today, they would start their second round series on the road, and frankly I don’t think that bothers this group all that much. Because while injuries do come with age, so does experience, and this is a very veteran group who I feel will have no problems going on the road and winning a game or two against Atlanta or Orlando in the Eastern semifinals.
Now of course at fifteen games over five hundred it hasn’t been all bad for the Celtics, and I do think that it will steadily improve for them that they end up with the second or third seed (unless they begin to rest their key players for health reasons down the stretch). One big change will be the recovery of Marquis Daniels, who helps solidify what has been a shaky bench, and provides a solid defender and playmaker with the second unit. Another major bright spot has been the development of Rajon Rondo, who has quietly developed into the best point guard in the East without a consistent outside jumper. He is a terrific finisher, hence why he is leading all guards in field goal percentage, and his court vision, especially in transition, is among the best in the league. He has a knack for the ball, and often due to incredible quickness and natural intuition, finds himself in the right spot at the right time. It is quickly becoming his team, and while he might not get the public credit of some of his more experienced teammates, they all know that they will not reach their championship goals without him playing top level basketball.
Though their record doesn’t show it currently, I do believe that the Celtics are the second best “team” in the East, and they will beat whoever they meet in the second round. Ultimately though, I don’t think they can beat Cleveland this year without the dominant half court defense they’ve had in the past. That being said though, you can never count out a champion, and even though I have tried to black out that few weeks in June 2008, they must always be accounted for.
GM- There have been a lot of rumors circulating about the Celtics trading Ray Allen, for say Kevin Martin or someone on the Bulls, but ultimately I don’t think this trade is going to happen. The more realistic trade, and more valuable trade for the Celtics is to attain a backup point guard. Because as good as Rondo has been this year, those playing for him when he sits have been just as bad. Eddie House is not and will never be an NBA point guard capable of running a team, so just about anyone would be an upgrade, especially if they could swing a good young player like D.J. Augustine.
3. Denver Nuggets
- 35-17
- 2nd in West (4.5 games back)
- 1st in Northwest Division (2 game lead)
Denver has always been one of the most exciting teams to watch, but this year they are adding some serious substance to their style (aka they are playing some defense). Marc Stein pointed out that with no matter who is in the lineup, the Nuggets are 15-0 when giving up less than 95 points this season. If that trend continues, then they will be a tough team to beat come playoff time.
Before his injury, Carmelo Anthony was having the best season of his career, but even in his absence the Nuggets didn’t really miss a beat. That can be due in large part to the stellar play of Chauncey Billups, including a career high 39 points in a monster win in L.A. against the Lakers last week. Now I don’t think that Billups can continue that scoring binge when Melo returns, but heading down the stetch, they are one of only a few teams that have two legitimate scoring options that can take over a game. And that’s not even including the NBA’s biggest microwave, J.R. Smith, who can fill it up for 40 on any given night.
The one major concern I have about the Nuggets is their lack of front court help and size. Especially against the Lakers who are so big and deep, it will be tough for the Nuggets to win relying on Nene, K-Mart, and the Birdman, especially now that Jeff Foster is out for the year. They are able to excel by getting out and running during the regular season, but when it comes playoff time and the pace slows down, I think the Lakers have a marked edge inside on both ends of the floor.
GM- As I just addressed, the Nuggets need an extra big man. I think that one of the interesting options would be looking into acquiring Marcus Camby, which would provide solid rebounding and defense on the interior. But again I think they most likely will not make a move, and will be wishing they have come June.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
- 40-13
- 1st in West (4.5 game lead)
- 1st in Pacific Division (8.5 game lead)
Last year’s champions were almost the unanimous choice to repeat in the preseason, and while they haven’t been as dominant as expected, they are still the class of the West. Though some other teams have closed the gap lately (the Nuggets and Jazz), the Lakers still hold a commanding lead for the best record in the conference, and all roads to the Finals should go through the Staples Center.
From players 1-6, the Lakers have the unquestioned most talent in the league, but after that, there is such a marked decrease that it has to be mentioned. Lamar Odom is really the only reliable big man on the bench, but of even greater concern is the guard and wing position. Shannon Brown has shown glimpses of being a good player, but he is still too raw and inconsistent. I won’t even justify the shell of a player Sasha Vujacic is now, and I have never been a believer in Jordan Farmer. Still though, their starters are good enough to overcompensate and get them back into the Finals.
An interesting tidbit about the Lakers though, and something that I think will only help them down the road, is how well they have played the last three games without Kobe. With number 24 sitting out for the first time in nearly three years, the Lakers went into Portland and won for the first time in years, an effort they followed up by a win over the Spurs, and a fifteen point lead on the road against the Jazz who have won 9 straight. Besides Bryant, the Lakers have also been without Andrew Bynum for these games, and this has led to reemergence and recognition of just how talented Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom are. Without Bryant, Gasol has become the consistent first option and he has excelled in a role he hasn’t held since his days in Memphis. He is the most skilled big man in the post, and without having to worry about getting Kobe his touches, he has been able to be patient and attack on his terms. With regards to Mr. Khole Kardasian, I have always thought that he was a top 15 talent in the NBA, but never found the right system to exploit his talents. I mean he is a legit 6’10 forward who can handle and shoot like a guard, and would be a perennial All-Star if he was the center of a team and able to play with the ball in his hands more; an opportunity he has gotten in the last few games. Now there is no denying this is Kobe’s team, and when he returns, all will return to order, but I think it is good for Gasol and Odom to remember that they good, very, very good.
GM- I think that this current team is good enough, and more importantly big enough to win the West as they are, so I don’t think they are going to press for a trade. But they wouldn’t mind adding a solid shooter that would work well in the triangle offense, a la Kirk Hinrich.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
- 42-11 (Best record in NBA by 2 games)
- 1st in East (6 game lead)
- 1st in Central Division (16 game lead)
I don’t want to do it, I really don’t, but I have to… as of the All-Star break, the Cleveland Cavaliers are the favorites to win the NBA title. They have the best record in the league and have won 12 straight despite not having Mo Williams or Delonte West for the majority of them. Somehow LeBron James is eclipsing his MVP season of a year ago, and on a nightly basis he is ending the debate of who is the best player on the planet. He is the most versatile player in the NBA, and to quote Bill Simmons, is now able to just flip a switch between “Magic and Michael mode.” He can score at will when we wants (ask the Knicks), but he has also done an amazing job filling in as the make shift point guard, averaging double digit assists in the last few games. I honestly cannot come up with enough adjectives to describe his play, so I’ll just move on.
I will admit that I wrote a few months ago that the Shaq experiment wasn’t working, but I stand corrected. He has looked a lot fresher lately, and has once again become a scoring option in the post. They run a lot of sets through him, especially early in quarters, which usually ends in Shaq getting a quality shot, kicking it for an open 3, or getting fouled which helps put the opposition in the penalty early on. He also has been a force on defense, and in late game situations, no players are getting easy lay ups, and they are feeling it anytime they come into the lane.
They are back to dominating at home (23-3) and the naysayers are a long way away after a slow start to the season. Yes, I have seen this play before…Just last year, the Cavs coasted through the regular season with the best record, only to have their championship aspirations dashed by the athletic Magic. But there seems to be something different about this team. They are playing with a renewed vigor and are without a doubt the hungriest team in the league right now (possibly playing to keep LeBron in Cleveland….nope I am blocking that thought out). I still don’t know that they match up real well against Rashard Lewis (we’ll see on Thursday), but I think that they are the best team in the East and it will be really difficult for anyone to win in the Q come playoff time. Even if he wins zero titles LeBron will go down as one of the top players in NBA history, but plain and simple, he wants to be considered the best, and he knows that to do that he has to win multiple titles, a fact that he hopes to start this June. (Just fyi, MJ didn’t win his first title until his 7th year in the league, and since LeBron was drafted in 2003, that would make THIS his 7th season….I’m just saying).
GM- One of the hardest working GM’s has to be Danny Ferry. He has the conundrum of both trying to provide talent to win now to impress LeBron, and build young talent to keep LeBron. Last season Rashard Lewis on the perimeter and Dwight Howard in the post exploited the Cavs. Shaq was brought in to handle Superman, but the Cavs still lack that “stretch 4” (there literally has never been a term more associated with a team than that with the Cavs trade possibilities). They are looking at Antwan Jamison and Troy Murphy, both players who fit the bill, but they are hesitant to give up J.J. Hickson, who has played well of late. There have been mixed reports about the Cavs possibly standing pat again this year at the deadline, but after failing to make a move that ending up costing them last summer, I bet Ferry pulls the trigger despite the high asking prices. LeBron has been lobbying hard for Jamison, and he is the player I would most like, but I guess we’ll see in the next few days.
5. Orlando Magic
- 35-17
- 2nd in Eastern Conference ( 6.5 games back)
- 1st in Southeast Division (1 game lead)
Last year’s Eastern Conference Champs have had a bit of an up and down season. There have been admitted issues with the replacement of Hedo Turkgolu with Vince Carter (just ask Rashard Lewis) and more disagreements between Stan Van Gundy and Dwight Howard, but lately they seem to be figuring it out. Though the NBA season is 82 games long, and it is never too smart to place too much emphasis on one game, I do have to put a lot of stock in the Magic’s comeback win against the Celtics two weeks ago. Down 16 points at home in the third quarter, the Magic battled all the way back and stole a win from Celts. That game was not only important for a gaining an edge in a possible tie breaker situation, but more than that, I think it was the first major win that this group of players have had together. Since this win, they have won 6 of 7 (with their lone loss being an inexcusable home defeat to the Wizards), with key wins over Boston twice and beating Atlanta handily for the third time this year. They carry this momentum into another big game in Cleveland tomorrow, and I think it will be a good measuring stick for this team against one of the league’s best.
Despite their recent success though, I have to rank them at five because I just don’t think that they are as good as they were last year. Too often they look flat and disinterested on both ends of the floor. Their ability to shoot the three pointer is a double edged sword because while they are never out of a game, they fall into a dangerous habit of relying on their ability to string together big runs, and that is a well that might have a tendency to go dry come playoff time. Also one of their strengths last year was the 3-5 pick and roll with Turkgolu and Howard in late game situations, but this year the distributing duties that Hedo did so well now fall to the always shot happy Vince Carter. They have one of the most talented teams on paper, but I don’t think this team meshes well enough to get back to the finals, and couldn’t beat either Boston or Cleveland in a 7 game series.
GM- I don’t think that the Magic are going to make any major splashes in the trade market, as their team is pretty solid and talented. But if one of the other Eastern contenders pulls the trigger, Otis Smith might play follow the leader and change his mind.
4. Boston Celtics
- 32-17
- 4th in the East (8 games back, 1.5 of second place)
- 1st in the Atlantic (5 game lead)
Due to my location and weird inclination to listen to Tommy Heinson “objectively” call Celtics games, I have watched this team more than any other besides the Cavs, but yet I can’t make up my mind on the ceiling of this team. A big part of me wants to believe that they are too old and too injured to seriously contend, but yet I see glimpses of the old champions from time to time.
There is no denying that “The Big Three” are getting up there in age, and the injury plague has hit this team harder than any team outside of Portland, but yet here they are on the list. But beyond the injuries, the biggest concern with this team has to be the more frequent breakdowns on defense. As the calling card for this team for the last three years, the defensive effectiveness has noticeably declined for major stretches this year. This along with the fact that they are often struggling to score over 100 points these days, have contributed to another worrisome fact, that they have lost now 9 games in which they led by 10 or more points (including both recent Orlando games). A frustrating trend that might be one of the reasons for the supposed locker room chemistry issues Rondo mentioned last week. They also already have 9 home losses this season, as compared to only 8 let downs on the road. The good part about this though is that if the playoffs started today, they would start their second round series on the road, and frankly I don’t think that bothers this group all that much. Because while injuries do come with age, so does experience, and this is a very veteran group who I feel will have no problems going on the road and winning a game or two against Atlanta or Orlando in the Eastern semifinals.
Now of course at fifteen games over five hundred it hasn’t been all bad for the Celtics, and I do think that it will steadily improve for them that they end up with the second or third seed (unless they begin to rest their key players for health reasons down the stretch). One big change will be the recovery of Marquis Daniels, who helps solidify what has been a shaky bench, and provides a solid defender and playmaker with the second unit. Another major bright spot has been the development of Rajon Rondo, who has quietly developed into the best point guard in the East without a consistent outside jumper. He is a terrific finisher, hence why he is leading all guards in field goal percentage, and his court vision, especially in transition, is among the best in the league. He has a knack for the ball, and often due to incredible quickness and natural intuition, finds himself in the right spot at the right time. It is quickly becoming his team, and while he might not get the public credit of some of his more experienced teammates, they all know that they will not reach their championship goals without him playing top level basketball.
Though their record doesn’t show it currently, I do believe that the Celtics are the second best “team” in the East, and they will beat whoever they meet in the second round. Ultimately though, I don’t think they can beat Cleveland this year without the dominant half court defense they’ve had in the past. That being said though, you can never count out a champion, and even though I have tried to black out that few weeks in June 2008, they must always be accounted for.
GM- There have been a lot of rumors circulating about the Celtics trading Ray Allen, for say Kevin Martin or someone on the Bulls, but ultimately I don’t think this trade is going to happen. The more realistic trade, and more valuable trade for the Celtics is to attain a backup point guard. Because as good as Rondo has been this year, those playing for him when he sits have been just as bad. Eddie House is not and will never be an NBA point guard capable of running a team, so just about anyone would be an upgrade, especially if they could swing a good young player like D.J. Augustine.
3. Denver Nuggets
- 35-17
- 2nd in West (4.5 games back)
- 1st in Northwest Division (2 game lead)
Denver has always been one of the most exciting teams to watch, but this year they are adding some serious substance to their style (aka they are playing some defense). Marc Stein pointed out that with no matter who is in the lineup, the Nuggets are 15-0 when giving up less than 95 points this season. If that trend continues, then they will be a tough team to beat come playoff time.
Before his injury, Carmelo Anthony was having the best season of his career, but even in his absence the Nuggets didn’t really miss a beat. That can be due in large part to the stellar play of Chauncey Billups, including a career high 39 points in a monster win in L.A. against the Lakers last week. Now I don’t think that Billups can continue that scoring binge when Melo returns, but heading down the stetch, they are one of only a few teams that have two legitimate scoring options that can take over a game. And that’s not even including the NBA’s biggest microwave, J.R. Smith, who can fill it up for 40 on any given night.
The one major concern I have about the Nuggets is their lack of front court help and size. Especially against the Lakers who are so big and deep, it will be tough for the Nuggets to win relying on Nene, K-Mart, and the Birdman, especially now that Jeff Foster is out for the year. They are able to excel by getting out and running during the regular season, but when it comes playoff time and the pace slows down, I think the Lakers have a marked edge inside on both ends of the floor.
GM- As I just addressed, the Nuggets need an extra big man. I think that one of the interesting options would be looking into acquiring Marcus Camby, which would provide solid rebounding and defense on the interior. But again I think they most likely will not make a move, and will be wishing they have come June.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
- 40-13
- 1st in West (4.5 game lead)
- 1st in Pacific Division (8.5 game lead)
Last year’s champions were almost the unanimous choice to repeat in the preseason, and while they haven’t been as dominant as expected, they are still the class of the West. Though some other teams have closed the gap lately (the Nuggets and Jazz), the Lakers still hold a commanding lead for the best record in the conference, and all roads to the Finals should go through the Staples Center.
From players 1-6, the Lakers have the unquestioned most talent in the league, but after that, there is such a marked decrease that it has to be mentioned. Lamar Odom is really the only reliable big man on the bench, but of even greater concern is the guard and wing position. Shannon Brown has shown glimpses of being a good player, but he is still too raw and inconsistent. I won’t even justify the shell of a player Sasha Vujacic is now, and I have never been a believer in Jordan Farmer. Still though, their starters are good enough to overcompensate and get them back into the Finals.
An interesting tidbit about the Lakers though, and something that I think will only help them down the road, is how well they have played the last three games without Kobe. With number 24 sitting out for the first time in nearly three years, the Lakers went into Portland and won for the first time in years, an effort they followed up by a win over the Spurs, and a fifteen point lead on the road against the Jazz who have won 9 straight. Besides Bryant, the Lakers have also been without Andrew Bynum for these games, and this has led to reemergence and recognition of just how talented Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom are. Without Bryant, Gasol has become the consistent first option and he has excelled in a role he hasn’t held since his days in Memphis. He is the most skilled big man in the post, and without having to worry about getting Kobe his touches, he has been able to be patient and attack on his terms. With regards to Mr. Khole Kardasian, I have always thought that he was a top 15 talent in the NBA, but never found the right system to exploit his talents. I mean he is a legit 6’10 forward who can handle and shoot like a guard, and would be a perennial All-Star if he was the center of a team and able to play with the ball in his hands more; an opportunity he has gotten in the last few games. Now there is no denying this is Kobe’s team, and when he returns, all will return to order, but I think it is good for Gasol and Odom to remember that they good, very, very good.
GM- I think that this current team is good enough, and more importantly big enough to win the West as they are, so I don’t think they are going to press for a trade. But they wouldn’t mind adding a solid shooter that would work well in the triangle offense, a la Kirk Hinrich.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
- 42-11 (Best record in NBA by 2 games)
- 1st in East (6 game lead)
- 1st in Central Division (16 game lead)
I don’t want to do it, I really don’t, but I have to… as of the All-Star break, the Cleveland Cavaliers are the favorites to win the NBA title. They have the best record in the league and have won 12 straight despite not having Mo Williams or Delonte West for the majority of them. Somehow LeBron James is eclipsing his MVP season of a year ago, and on a nightly basis he is ending the debate of who is the best player on the planet. He is the most versatile player in the NBA, and to quote Bill Simmons, is now able to just flip a switch between “Magic and Michael mode.” He can score at will when we wants (ask the Knicks), but he has also done an amazing job filling in as the make shift point guard, averaging double digit assists in the last few games. I honestly cannot come up with enough adjectives to describe his play, so I’ll just move on.
I will admit that I wrote a few months ago that the Shaq experiment wasn’t working, but I stand corrected. He has looked a lot fresher lately, and has once again become a scoring option in the post. They run a lot of sets through him, especially early in quarters, which usually ends in Shaq getting a quality shot, kicking it for an open 3, or getting fouled which helps put the opposition in the penalty early on. He also has been a force on defense, and in late game situations, no players are getting easy lay ups, and they are feeling it anytime they come into the lane.
They are back to dominating at home (23-3) and the naysayers are a long way away after a slow start to the season. Yes, I have seen this play before…Just last year, the Cavs coasted through the regular season with the best record, only to have their championship aspirations dashed by the athletic Magic. But there seems to be something different about this team. They are playing with a renewed vigor and are without a doubt the hungriest team in the league right now (possibly playing to keep LeBron in Cleveland….nope I am blocking that thought out). I still don’t know that they match up real well against Rashard Lewis (we’ll see on Thursday), but I think that they are the best team in the East and it will be really difficult for anyone to win in the Q come playoff time. Even if he wins zero titles LeBron will go down as one of the top players in NBA history, but plain and simple, he wants to be considered the best, and he knows that to do that he has to win multiple titles, a fact that he hopes to start this June. (Just fyi, MJ didn’t win his first title until his 7th year in the league, and since LeBron was drafted in 2003, that would make THIS his 7th season….I’m just saying).
GM- One of the hardest working GM’s has to be Danny Ferry. He has the conundrum of both trying to provide talent to win now to impress LeBron, and build young talent to keep LeBron. Last season Rashard Lewis on the perimeter and Dwight Howard in the post exploited the Cavs. Shaq was brought in to handle Superman, but the Cavs still lack that “stretch 4” (there literally has never been a term more associated with a team than that with the Cavs trade possibilities). They are looking at Antwan Jamison and Troy Murphy, both players who fit the bill, but they are hesitant to give up J.J. Hickson, who has played well of late. There have been mixed reports about the Cavs possibly standing pat again this year at the deadline, but after failing to make a move that ending up costing them last summer, I bet Ferry pulls the trigger despite the high asking prices. LeBron has been lobbying hard for Jamison, and he is the player I would most like, but I guess we’ll see in the next few days.
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